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Live Signal Monitoring

TRADEOS.tech does not simply enter a trade and wait for a stop or target to be hit. Every open position is monitored continuously by a dedicated background process that evaluates whether the original trade thesis is still valid. When the evidence degrades, the system acts — before the stop is reached.

The Live Signal Score​

On each check interval, for each open position, TRADEOS.tech computes a live signal score (0.0–1.0) that measures the current health of the trade's thesis. This score is a weighted composite of multiple real-time factors:

  • Signal quality and calibrated confidence — is the originating signal still scoring well?
  • Signal decay — how far has the signal aged past its freshness window?
  • Regime persistence — is the regime that supported entry still in place?
  • Price performance — is price moving as expected relative to entry?
  • Adverse selection risk (VPIN) — is informed order flow building against the position?
  • Microstructure pressure — is the order book and modeled order flow still directionally supportive?
  • Trailing drawdown from peak — how far has the position pulled back from its best level?
  • Regime stability (BOCD) — is a change-point actively being detected?

The component weights are calibrated empirically from live position outcome data and are version-stamped. Specific weights and their calibration methodology are proprietary and not disclosed.

The regime persistence component is penalized when the Bayesian change-point detector reports elevated probability of a regime transition — even before a new regime is confirmed.

Automatic Actions​

When the live signal score crosses defined thresholds, TRADEOS.tech takes automatic action:

Critically degraded score — Force Exit When the live signal score falls below a calibrated degradation threshold, the trade thesis is considered no longer supportable. TRADEOS.tech triggers a market exit regardless of whether the stop loss has been reached. This is a signal-based exit, not a price-based exit. It protects capital before a stop is hit.

Confirmed-strong score with open profit — Stop Tightening / Partial Exit When the thesis is confirmed exceptionally strong and the position is profitable, TRADEOS.tech tightens the trailing stop and executes a partial exit to lock in gains while maintaining exposure to the remaining move.

Specific threshold values, partial exit fractions, and check intervals are proprietary and subject to ongoing calibration.

Why This Matters​

A stop loss is a last resort — it is the price at which you accept you were wrong. But there are often clear signals before price reaches a stop that the trade thesis has broken down:

  • The regime has shifted against the position
  • Order flow has reversed
  • Signal decay has exceeded the signal's validity window
  • The originating signal type is no longer producing supportive readings

Waiting for price to hit the stop means giving back profit (or converting a small loss into a larger one) when the system already knows the thesis is deteriorating. The live signal monitor closes positions based on evidence, not just price.

Per-Position Isolation​

Each open position runs its own independent live signal monitor. Positions are not evaluated as a batch — each gets its own background task with its own scoring state, decay tracking, and Hawkes model. This means a deteriorating thesis on one position does not affect the monitoring of others.